Probabilistic Seasonal Rainfall Forecast for SOUTHERN AFRICA (Issued on 28 September, 2012)

Contributors: SAWS, CSIR, NCEP, IRI

This seasonal forecast is issued by the South African Weather Service (SAWS). The forecast is a result of a multi-institutional multi-model system that comprises of forecasts from:
1. The CCAM, operated by the CSIR, forced with persisted global SST anomalies
2. The ECHAM4.5-MOM3-DC2 coupled GCM, administered by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI)
3. The CFS, a coupled seasonal forecast system administered by NCEP
4. The ECHAM4.5 AGCM, run locally at SAWS and forced with predicted global SST anomalies.
The forecast coarse-resolution large-scale circulation fields of these global models are empirically downscaled to a 0.5x0.5 degree resolution using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT).
There are two sets of maps presented - the maps on the left show the chance of the particular rainfall season being above-normal (wet), and the maps on the right show the chance for below-normal (dry) rainfall totals to occur.

Probabilistic Seasonal Rainfall Forecast for SOUTHERN AFRICA (Issued on 28 September, 2012)
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More info

  • Global Forecasting Centre for Southern Africa
  • [PDF] 2012/2013 Seasonal Rainfall Forecast Humanitarian ... - ReliefWeb
  • [PDF] SARCOF - Southern African Development Community
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